Look, predicting a pre-tournament winner in golf isn’t easy. While it’s true sports bettors can find fantastic value, it’s incredibly frustrating when one of your picks doesn’t even make the cut. That’s why I’m here to help.
Every week I’ll highlight three golfers who have a good chance to win the hardware for the upcoming weekend. This week it’s the fourth and final major of the year: the PGA Championship.
For a full breakdown of the tournament, check out my betting preview.
Odds courtesy of Bovada
My favorite pick: Justin Thomas +1400
Less than a week removed from a four-stroke victory at the WGC-Bridgestone Invitational, Thomas is rounding into form at the right time to defend his title after winning last year’s PGA Championship. JT’s victory at Firestone, which was his first WGC win, put the rest of the PGA Tour on notice. Prior to that tournament the American had only collected one T-10 finish since March, but I don’t think that’s anything to worry about. After all, he’s already won three times in 2017-18.
Bellerive is going to reward players with strong iron games, and it’s hard to beat Thomas in that regard right now. Thomas sits fourth on the PGA Tour in strokes gained tee-to-green and No. 7 in approach. You won’t find much value in his +1400 price, but for a player of his caliber, he’s worth it.
My second favorite pick: Tony Finau +4000
Finau was my favorite sleeper pick to win the British Open, and the Utah native posted a very solid 4-under T-9 showing at the ever-tough Carnoustie. Oddsmakers have finally caught on to Finau, as his PGA Championship odds are considerably lower than the +10000 price he had prior to the British Open. Even at +4000, he’s my second favorite pick on the board.
Finau is the only golfer on the Tour to finish in the top 10 in each of the year’s first three majors. While bettors may be concerned about his only PGA Tour win coming from an opposite-field event (2016 Puerto Rico Open), I think he’s going to win a big tournament sooner rather than later.
My third favorite pick: Bubba Watson +5000
Despite a few flops here and there, Watson has been having a great season, and I’m expecting him to put on a show in Missouri. Like Thomas, Watson has already won three times this year (WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, Genesis Open and the Travelers Championship).
Some bettors may stay away from him due to the back-to-back cuts he missed at the Open Championship and the RBC Canadian Open, which is understandable. At +5000, the value is certainly there for a player who’s proven he has what it takes to win big events. A two-time winner at Augusta National in 2012 and 2014, Bubba has yet to claim another major but notched a runner-up finish at the PGA Championship in 2010.