WELL, HELLOOOOOO, KITS!
If you are a regular listener of our podcast, you’ll know that — unlike many independent media organizations — we have a healthy appreciation for polling. Polling has gained a bad reputation of late, but in all honesty, much of that is somewhat undeserved. The main issue, in my opinion, is that our media is very focused on the topline number, the horse race (if you will), but rarely do they offer us some in-depth regional analysis.
Now while I admittedly am not an expert on statistics, throughout my studies, I had the privilege of taking introductory courses in both quantitative and qualitative analysis, and the information I picked up in those classes has been incredibly beneficial in helping me factor this data into my takes on the Canadian political scene.
For this purpose, rather than relying on a single public opinion survey organization, I prefer to look at polling aggregators, as they put the data from all of them together and give them weight based on how recent they are as well as the general quality of the firms. For our work, we look to 338Canada.com. [NOTE: I apologize for the lack of clarity of the images; clicking on them will bring you to the site where they are more apparent. You must click on your back button to return to the article.]
Today, the site updated its numbers with data that has come in over the last week, and certain very interesting things are being revealed.
Let’s take a better look at that which the numbers tell us.
THE NATIONAL NUMBERS
The national horse race number has shown the Conservatives leading pretty much since May, with a noticeable bump after it was confirmed that Pepe Le Pewlievre won the Convoy Party of Canada’s leadership race. However, since November, the race has been narrowing, with the Conservatives dropping gradually and the Liberals rising… until the last two reporting periods, that is. Interestingly, the NDP has benefited from the Conservative drop and Liberal stagnation.
Among the smaller parties: the Maxime Dernier PPC party has been declining steadily since it became apparent that Pepe was the prohibitive favorite in the CPC leadership race; the Greens appear to be regaining some ground since Elizabeth May (along with Jonathan Pedneault) has returned to clean up the mess the party has made of itself and get it back on track, and; the Bloc Québecois has been taking a dip (which may also have something to do with Le Pew taking the helm of the CPC).
We’ve oft said on our shows that Le Pew wouldn’t benefit from lengthier exposure to the public. For him, it already appears like the honeymoon is over, and all of it is self-inflicted. Other things that could be factoring into his drop are the testimony given at the Public Order Emergency Commission and conservative-minded provincial premiers doing shit jobs. Some of that shame is rubbing off on the national brand.
According to recent Angus Reid data, in three of the seven polling regions of Canada, there’s at least one premier dragging the brand down: Manitoba Premier Heather Stefanson — who I continue to believe is Jason Kenney in bad drag until I see both of them in the same room — on the Prairies, New Brunswick Premier Blaine Higgs in Atlantic Canada and, Doug Ford in Ontario. They are the three least appreciated premiers in the country, with Ford Edsel having a job approval rating of 34% and the other two drowning below 30% (with not more than a year to go until an election for Stefanson and not more than two until Higgs will face voters).
In Alberta, Old Dan-Yeller’s disapproval rating is already higher than her approval one. Let’s say that she’s made an impression and is leaving very few indifferent (that’s how you diplomatically say: “Christ on a bike riding sideways, Mildred, that one’s a walking-talking human shit show of a trainwreck!!”).
For the Liberals, the big issue appears to be their botched handling of Bill C-21, better known as the gun control bill.
How they introduced, their amendment was, by any objective measure, an utter disaster. The NDP, which holds a healthy number of more rural seats in certain provinces, is thus having a much more nuanced discourse and policy position on the issue — it encompasses the views of rural hunters and more urban citizens — and is seemingly reaping the public opinion rewards.
This becomes a bit more obvious in how those numbers translated to seats. In them, the shortness of Le Pew’s honeymoon becomes abundantly clear: it lasted about three reporting periods before ending abruptly. After all, as the song goes: ♪ To know, know, know him… Is to loathe, loathe, loathe him… ♫
Most of that drop was to the benefit of the Liberals, but also slightly to NDP, especially in western Canada.
Though the Liberals trail by 1% in the national number, because the CPC’s vote is way over-concentrated in western Canada, it leads the Pee Pee Party by about 24 seats. Furthermore, the seat range number (in brackets) shows that if the party is having a fantastic election night, there’s a slight chance (6%) of t snagging a majority.
That Petey P. Staines is not doing well reveals itself even more when one looks at the ‘odds of winning the most seats’ metric. There, we see that Petey shot up like a rocket for five reporting periods and then suddenly, back to Earth as Canadians started getting tired of his act. There was a slight recovery, but the drop has continued nonstop since. At present, his party only stands a 36% chance of winning the most seats (an approximate 35% drop from the very recent peak).
The Liberals have shown a particular adeptness (and an infuriating — for its supporters — habit) of scoring own goals, just as it seems they’ve managed to convince enough Canadians that they are indeed the better party. Over the past few weeks, public perception of the prime minister has done well in his testimony before the Public Order Emergency Commission has been supplanted by the C-21 amendment flub, seemingly setting a ceiling to the party’s rise.
ATLANTIC CANADA
Atlantic Canadians appear to have no appetite for the desPIERREration politics of the CPC, which has pushed Liberal support in the region to near-annual highs. It is very likely that in this region of Canada, given the massacre of 17 fellow citizens in the Portapique area of Nova Scotia, that C-21 is viewed more favorably. But the trend has been solidly Liberal all year, and it has become increasingly so since early November.
QUÉBEC
Bloc Québecois support has been dipping significantly over the past five reporting periods, with all three mainstream federal parties benefitting a little but the Liberals most. There doesn’t seem to be an apparent reason other than — and this is merely speculation here — the possibility that the Québecois don’t want to see Petey as prime minister. Since the Québecois are frequently the savviest federal voters in the nation, they know their bread is buttered better on the Liberal side.
ONTARIO
The CPC has also been dropping steadily in Ontario for the past five reporting periods, mainly to the benefit of the Liberals, who, instead of running with the ball, opted to drop it, seemingly in favor of the NDP, who — at the risk of repeating myself — are landing blows on the proposed gun bill.
PRAIRIES
When Skippy the Wonder Pigeon officially became the leader of the Chaos Party of Canada, Canadians living on the Prairies wanting to oppose it made an immediate clear choice that their better vehicle was the NDP rather than the Liberals. The party has steadily been climbing, gaining about 6%, since the beginning of the year, most of it coming since September, to sit at 2022 high. The Liberals have recovered a few of their losses from the CPC, which has seen a slow three-consecutive period decline.
Now, with the Conservative party still having a 16% lead over its closest rival, the party hasn’t much about which to worry… for the moment.
This graph, in particular, shows the PPC’s fall as it became clear that Skippy was making himself inevitable.
ALBERTA
Not much to say here. Pretty much the same old, same old. A touch of downward momentum for the Conservatives, but since provincially and federally, Alberta is not the same beast, the Hot Mess Express that is Marjorie Taylor Smith has not yet been a drag on the federal party. But she’s got until May to make that happen. From where I sit, she’s working rather hard at it. However, with a 30% lead over their closest rival, something monstrously disastrous would have to occur to the CPC for any of it to matter.
This graph also shows PPC migration back to the CPC due to The Skippy Effect.
BRITISH COLUMBIA
British Columbia has been the most exciting region in Canada, politically, for the whole year. As the third most populous province in a representation by population Parliament, this province can be the difference-maker when it comes to majority vs. minority government.
As you can see, it was a close three-way race until the Conservative leadership was about to get underway.
Prospects of a Pee Wee Vermin win fueled growth in support, and the win secured him his most considerable honeymoon period in the entire nation. This was at the expense of both the Liberals, especially the NDP.
However, over the past four reporting periods, the Conservatives have been losing steam almost to the benefit of the NDP, and the Liberals are treading water. If this trend continues, we might be reverting to the close race that was the case for the first five months of this year.
Interestingly, if you look at the seat count, you notice that the three parties are within three seats of each other. British Columbia, unlike other provinces, is pretty evenly carved out regionally between the three major parties and these numbers reflect that.
TERRITORIES
The three seats in the Territories are currently occupied by 2 Liberals (Yukon Territory, Northwest Territories) and 1 NDP (Nunavut) MPs. As you can see, over the past two reporting periods, the NDP has gained a little at the expense of the Liberals, and on seat count, if an election were held today, one of the Liberals’ seats would flip to the NDP. Here again, Bill C-21 is likely the critical issue. The Indigenous community is not a big fan of the recent amendment proposal. The AFN Chiefs and proxies at the recent Assembly of First Nations (AFN) notable chiefs assembly in Ottawa passed an emergency resolution to oppose the bill.
The Liberals screwed up massively here. While all proper and meaningful consultation with the Indigenous community was completed for the tabling of the original bill, it appears none at all was done about the amendment. Given the very legitimate “nothing about us, without us” perspective of the community, Liberals should have been able to predict this would not go well for them… and yet, here we are.
According to the CBC: “The resolution directs the AFN to call upon the federal government to conduct proper consultation with First Nations. It also calls for amendments to the bill to remove the list of long guns commonly used by First Nations hunters.”
And according to Turtle Island News:
Among the other parties, the Conservatives have also been losing a little bit of steam to the benefit of the Greens, but both are also-rans in the region.
So there you have it, Kits… the national numbers, but also a quick take on which polls happen to be indicating is happening in each of the seven polling regions in the country.
I hope this analysis adds color and texture beyond “Conservatives still in the lead” because, as you see, it’s not quite simple.
The more we understand about our civics, the harder it is to have the wool pulled over your eyes and this… is eyes wide open time.
Until we next see each other, be kind to and gentle with yourself,
Your Eager Beaver
The True North Eager Beaver is also a podcast. We have a live morning show every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday at 7 a.m. (Eastern) that you can find on our YouTube channel or live-streamed on our Twitter feed.
Episode 26 of The Not Quite Daily Beaver: Doug Ford vs. Strong Women
On this Friday morning show Beaver Bite episode, we have more time, so we talk about Céline Dion’s health revelation, how That F****r Doug Ford™ is engaging in a lot of “abuser speak,” invading the Greenbelt, and stealing municipal government away from Ontarians; the COP 15 UN Biodiversity Conference; Dan Old-Yeller conceding the fight to Rachel Notely and putting out bait; some surprising moves from US politicians; Scotiabank blowing up the Pee Pee See Pee See’s Justinflation narrative; national parks; and a bunch of international news affecting the 2SLGTBQI+ community, including the tragic events at Club Q in Colorado Springs.do a quick scan of the Georgia run-off, The Orange Shit Stain’s terrible day, China changing its COVID rules, a raid on extremists in Germany, the Auditor General of Canada’s report…
PS: If you like what we do and wish to encourage us to do more, our tip jar can be found here, or you can get your Eager Beaver merch here.
