The AFC West went from being all about one team, to the best division in football. The AFC went from being about a couple of teams to a loaded, unpredictable conference. For the past two seasons betting on the Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl seemed like an easy bet. However, with the moves that the West and the rest of the AFC made, and the personal changes in Kansas City, how safe would you feel putting money on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl?
DraftKings is currently paying out +1000 if you bet on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl. I’m not one to call out handicappers, those guys are way smarter than me, and there’s a reason that we say “the house always wins”. However, and maybe this is just my bias talking, or me being swept up in what was the wildest NFL offseason I’d ever experienced, but I can not see a scenario where the Kansas City Chiefs are the fourth favourite to win the Super Bowl.
You might ask me who I would put above the Chiefs, and maybe that’s where I’d struggle. I’d probably have a whole bunch of teams tied. The Cincinnati Bengals, Cleveland Browns (Obviously pending Deshaun Watson’s status), Las Vegas Raiders, Los Angeles Chargers, and the Denver Broncos all need to sit in the same category as the Chiefs for me. The Baltimore Ravens are also a wildcard in the AFC, and you can’t completely count out the Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans.
+1000 just doesn’t seem like enough value on a team that is no longer in a category all on its own. Betting on who is going to win the Super Bowl in April is probably the equivalent of winning the lottery. The only team that gives me any feeling that it feels like a safe bet is the Buffalo Bills, and again it’s April.
After breaking all of that down, we didn’t even discuss the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Green Bay Packers, and the Los Angeles Rams in the NFC.
If the Chiefs were giving better odds like +1600, I may have considered taking a risk and putting some money down, but at +1000, while playing in the toughest division in football, and a conference that’s wide open, It’s just not giving me enough value.