Aaron Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, he’s also one of the highest paid. Because the Green Bay Packers gave Rodgers a gigantic pay raise, Rodgers’ favourite wide receiver Davante Adams was a cap casualty, and after being Franchise Tagged, Adams was traded to the Las Vegas Raiders. Despite one of the best wide receivers leaving, the Packers are still a top five favourite to win the Super Bowl.
Currently DraftKings are paying out +1000 if the Green Bay Packers win the Super Bowl. The only two teams ahead of Green Bay are the Kansas City Chiefs and the Buffalo Bills. So, should people feel comfortable putting money on the Packers winning the Super Bowl?
Before we even get into the stats, let’s keep in my mind that Green Bay has not been great in the postseason. It feels like despite how good the team is, they just can’t seem to win the big game when it really matters. For anybody making the argument that the Packers won the Super Bowl before with Aaron Rodgers, that was 2010. We’re heading into the 2022 season. That should be taken into consideration when deciding whether or not to bet on Green Bay.
Analytical website Football Outsiders doesn’t paint a pretty picture for Green Bay. Using Football Outsiders DVOA formula, Green Bay’s offense was ranked 2nd in 2021, and replacing Davante Admas with Sammy Watkins isn’t going to boost that ranking. The Packers offense boosted their total team DVOA to 11th overall, but Green Bay’s 22nd defensive ranking, and league worst 32nd special teams ranking is less than ideal.
When you combine the analytics with the eye test, nothing is screaming that Green Bay should be a favourite to win. I personally don’t think that +1000 is enough value considering all of the factors, and frankly even if betting sites were giving better odds, I just wouldn’t put my money on the Packers winning the Super Bowl. I would go as far as saying, I wouldn’t put money on them winning the NFC. I think there’s a slight chance that Green Bay could lose the division to the Minnesota Vikings.
So, can the Green Bay Packers win the Super Bowl? That’s a no from me.
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