The Toronto Blue Jays return to Dunedin coming off a three-game sweep of the Atlanta Braves, who they dummied for the second time in just two weeks winning all six games of their season series. The Braves played better this time around, and their fans tried getting the Tomahawk Chop going a few times as each game was close right to the end, but it felt like 1992 again as the Blue Jays reminded Atlanta that they can’t hang. This weekend they take on another NL East club as Bryce Harper and the Philadelphia Phillies come to TD Ballpark, and I’ve got a couple bets for tonight’s series opener that might make you a few bucks.
I went 1-1 last week, thanks to Robbie Ray and his tight pants for going six innings to cash his outs prop with ease. The Blue Jays pulled off the upset as underdogs in that game in Oakland, but this time around they’re heavy favourites as the sportsbooks are riding the Jays’ win streak and Steven Matz’s solid start to the season. I like Matz to have another good start tonight and keep the Phillies in check, giving the Blue Jays a good chance to win their fourth straight. I hope my luck continues as I went on a 14-2 run this week, mostly betting baseball with a bit of basketball player props sprinkled in, and I might just have some more winners in store here in a game that has a bunch of good opportunities from a betting perspective.
All lines will be available via Bet365, a sportsbook that is very legal in Canada. Odds will be measured in American-style odds, which is the most common gambling metric used in this part of the world, as well as decimal-style odds because that’s what I like using. For some reason, the U.S. has its own system for every type of measurement, which definitely isn’t narcissistic in any way whatsoever. If you’re interested in learning about American odds, or looking to convert American/Decimal/Fraction gambling odds from one to the other, then you’re welcome. Both are good to know when first getting into sports gambling.
*And please make sure to play responsibly. This is just for fun. You shouldn’t try to make a living off of a weekday regular season baseball game in May. That would be foolish.
May 14: Toronto Blue Jays (-147 / 1.68) vs Philadelphia Phillies (+125 / 2.25)
Probable Pitchers: Steven Matz, LHP (TOR) vs Vince Velasquez, RHP (PHI)
under 10.5 Runs (-105 / 1.95)
The Blue Jays are coming off a win in which they hung eight runs on the Braves, five of which came in the last two innings. While this offense can be lethal when firing on all cylinders, and will be facing an inconsistent starter in Vince Velasquez, I find that an over/under 10.5 runs is high enough that I actually like the under. It’s never a fun bet taking the under, but with Matz on the mound, I don’t think this will be that high-scoring. The Jays’ southpaw should take advantage of facing a Phillies lineup that’s worse against LHP and will be missing two of their best hitters in J.T. Realmuto and Didi Gregorius. On the other side Velasquez has only allowed one run in each of his last two starts, both coming off solo homers.
Velasquez is less of a sure thing than Matz, hence why the Blue Jays are favoured in this one, but boy does he play great defense. Look at how incredible this play is as he fired a bullet to first with his non-throwing arm a couple years ago to save a run. Pretty damn impressive.
The Blue Jays/Phillies at 10.5 is just one of two games today with a run total that high, and at nearly 2:1 odds I think this is an under that’s worth taking.
Steven Matz Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-175 / 1.57)
I’ve been a huge fan of Matz this season, and after a tough 2020 he looks like the pitcher that came into the league as a highly touted prospect. He’s tied for the AL lead with 5 wins, and taking him to record the win at +175/2.75 is enticing but I feel that the over on his strikeout prop is more of a sure thing. I’m gonna be honest, the odds on it are pretty juiced and usually I like K props to have a better return, but I think Matz will hit over 4.5 punchies pretty easily. He’s hit it in four of his seven starts, which isn’t a great success rate and is why it’s only at 4.5, but he faces a Phillies lineup that has whiffed more than any other team in the NL and second-most in baseball over the last two weeks.
Steven Matz, K'ing the side.
K's 6, 7 and 8. pic.twitter.com/bM0GnxtiE0
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) April 5, 2021
Philadelphia faced a southpaw starter just yesterday, and Patrick Corbin of the Washington Nationals struck out nine batters while allowing just one run across seven innings. Matz is having a better season than Corbin, and I think that he can get at least five K’s in this one. I’ve had pretty good success with pitcher strikeout props and I’m a big fan of backing Matz here.
Teoscar Hernandez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110 / 2.10)
I don’t take hitter props as much as pitcher props, but I feel confident riding a guy who’s swinging a hot bat and has previous success against the opposing starter. Teoscar Hernandez has been mashing the ball since returning from a COVID-related absence, especially this week as he’s recorded multi-hit games in each of the last four games and hit two homers in Wednesday’s game. Teo’s been a big reason why the Blue Jays’ bats have held up despite George Springer being back on the Injured List, and I like him to contribute in this one and record over 1.5 total bases.
Teoscar Hernandez hits a MOONSHOT & the Blue Jays (-105 ML) take a 4-1 lead
— Bet The Bases (@betthebases) May 13, 2021
Taking this bet means I think he’ll get at least two bases on hits. The bet cashes if Hernandez has two singles, or a double, or a homer. Teoscar is capable of doing all of those, and especially against Velasquez; in six at-bats against the Phillies starter last season, he had three hits including a home run. I’ll gladly put my money on one of the hottest hitters in baseball who gets a favourable matchup, especially at plus odds!