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Week 4 NFL Betting Picks, Trends and Stats Primer

Week 4 NFL Betting Picks, Trends and Stats Primer

As the temperature lowers and the sun gives way to the moon, bettors are beginning to settle in for the most popular NFL games of the week — otherwise known as Thursday Night Football, Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football. Some handicap these games like any other typical Sunday afternoon game, however, there are some developing trends in each game that bettors should be aware of.

Maybe these are coincidences (yes, I know, a lot of trends are) or perhaps these games are presenting spots that we need to apply to our handicapping:

TNF Trends
  • The away team is 1-6-1 ATS in the last eight TNF games
  • The away team is 0-4 SU last in the last four TNF games 
  • The favorite is 9-2 SU last 11 TNF games 
  • The favorite is 7-2-1 ATS last 10 TNF games
SNF Trends
  • The favorite is 10-3 SU last 13 SNF games 
  • The favorite is 1-6-1 ATS last eight SNF games
  • The total has gone UNDER in three straight SNF games
MNF Trends
  • The road team is 4-1 SU in the last four MNF games
  • The road team is 6-1 ATS last seven MNF games
  • The total has gone UNDER in seven of the last nine MNF games
  • The favorite is 16-3 SU in the last 19 MNF games

So, maybe something to consider with your prime-time bets for Week 5. Or, maybe something to ignore altogether. You’re entitled to your opinion on the matter, just like I’m entitled to my opinion that Star Wars sucks. Anyways, I’m getting off topic. On to the business at hand…

Best Bets for Week 5:

Based primarily on the content in this article, here’s my best bets for Week 5 of the NFL season using lines from Thursday, October 4:

  • Patriots -10.5
  • Falcons +3.5
  • Ravens -3
  • Dolphins +5.5
  • Rams -7
  • Raiders vs Chargers – OVER 52.5 
  • Broncos vs Jets – UNDER 42.5.
  • Cowboys vs Texans – 6-point teaser bringing Texans to +3 and UNDER to 51.5. (more on that here)

Week 5 NFL Stats and Trends:

Colts at Patriots
  • The favorite is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 TNF games.
  • The Patriots are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a double-digit favorite at home.
  • The Patriots are 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in their last nine games at home. (Avg winning margin: 16.22)
  • In 12 career TNF games, Tom Brady has a 107.7 QB rating with 25 TDs and three INTs.
  • The Patriots are 16-2 SU and 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games in the second of back-to-back home games.
  • The Colts rank 27th in net yards per play
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Colts’ last eight games vs the Patriots. (Avg combined score: 63.25)
  • The Colts are 0-7 SU in their last seven games vs the Patriots. (Avg losing margin: 19.0)
  • The Patriots are 31-9 SU in their last 40 games at night.
  • The Colts are 1-8 SU in their last nine games at night.
  • The Colts are 11-2 SU and 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games on Thursday.
Falcons at Steelers
  • Since Week 14 of last season (their first game without Ryan Shazier) the Steelers have allowed 28.44 points per game. With him in the lineup from Weeks 1-13 last season, they allowed 17.75
  • The Falcons rank 5th in net yards per play.
  • The average combined score in the Falcons’ last three games is 69.3. The average combined score in The Steelers’ last three games is 58.66.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Steelers’ last nine games at home. (Avg combined score: 60.56)
  • The Steelers are 0-6 ATS in their last six games as home favorites.
  • The Steelers are 13-3 SU in their last 16 games at home in October.
  • The Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in the early afternoon.
  • The Falcons are 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games on the road vs teams with losing records.
  • The Falcons are 1-11-1 SU in their last 13 games vs the Steelers.
  • The Falcons are 0-6-1 SU in their last seven games on the road vs the Steelers.
Ravens at Browns
  • Baltimore ranks 4th in net yards per play. Cleveland ranks 26th.
  • Cleveland leads the league with a +7 turnover differential.
  • Baltimore outscored Cleveland 51-20 in two games last season.
  • The Ravens are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Ravens are 9-1 SU and ATS in their last 10 games in Cleveland.
  • The Ravens are 18-2 SU in their last 20 games vs the Browns.
  • The Ravens are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs the Browns.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Ravens’ last three games vs the Browns. (Avg combined score: 35.33)
  • The Browns are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games as home underdogs.
  • The Browns are 0-17-1 SU and 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Ravens are 2-12 SU in their last 14 games after consecutive wins.
  • The Ravens are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last five games in the early afternoon.
Broncos at Jets
  • The Broncos beat the Jets 23-0 last season in Denver
  • The Broncos are 0-6 SU and ATS in their last six games in the early afternoon.
  • The Broncos are 1-10 SU and ATS in their last 11 games on the road.
  • The Jets are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games at home.
  • The Jets are averaging 13.66 points per game over their last three games.
  • In his lone home game this season, Sam Darnold threw for 334 yards. He’s failed to reach 200 in either of his other three games.
  • The Broncos are 3-0 SU in their last three games vs the Jets. (Avg winning margin: 13.67)
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Broncos’ last six games on the road vs the Jets.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Broncos’ last 10 games on the road vs teams with losing records.
Dolphins at Bengals
  • Bengals’ games have had an average combined score of 59.75 this season.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Bengals’ last five games. (Avg combined score: 59.4)
  • The Dolphins are averaging 13.4 points per game over their last seven road games.
  • The Bengals are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games at home after consecutive road games.
  • The Dolphins are 12-3 SU in their last 15 games vs the Bengals.
  • The Dolphins are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games vs the Bengals.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Dolphins’ last four games vs the Bengals. (Avg combined score: 34.25)
  • The Dolphins are 1-6 SU and ATS in their last seven games on the road.
Giants at Panthers
  • The Panthers are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games at home. (Avg winning margin: 8.86)
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Giants’ last seven games vs the Panthers. (Avg combined score: 50.71)
  • The visiting team is 1-3 ATS in its last four games in this matchup.
  • The Panthers are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games in the early afternoon.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Panthers’ last four games after a bye.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Giants’ last six games. (Avg combined score: 36.5)
  • The Giants are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games on the road in October.
  • The Giants are 3-12 SU in their last 15 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
Jaguars at Chiefs
  • The Jaguars are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games as road underdogs.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Chiefs’ last six games at home. (Avg combined score: 43.33)
  • The Jaguars are allowing the fewest passing yards per game at 164.2. The Chiefs are allowing the second most passing yards per game at 328.5.
  • The Jaguars are 1-3 ATS in their last four games vs the Chiefs.
  • The Jaguars are 0-3 SU in their last three games vs the Chiefs. (Avg losing margin: 17.67)
  • The Chiefs are 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games at home.
  • The Chiefs are 4-0 SU and ATS in their last four games in the early afternoon.
  • The Jaguars are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games in the early afternoon.
  • Patrick Mahomes has thrown 14 TDs and 0 INTs this season. That’s good in my opinion.
Packers at Lions
  • The Lions are allowing a league-high 157.8 rushing yards per game.
  • The Lions are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games prior to a bye.
  • The Packers are 27-8 SU in their last 35 games vs the Lions.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Packers’ last five games vs the Lions. (Avg combined score: 51.8)
  • The Lions are 4-11 SU in their last 15 games before a bye.
  • The Lions are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs their division at home.
  • The total has gone OVER in eight of the Lions’ last 11 games at home. (Avg combined score: 49.73)
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the Packers’ last seven games in the early afternoon.
  • The Packers are 53-20-2 SU in their last 75 games vs divisional opponents.
Raiders at Chargers
  • Oakland is allowing the second most points per game (30.8) while the Chargers are allowing the fifth most (30).
  • Raiders’ games this season have had an average combined score of 55. Chargers games have had an average combined score of 57.75.
  • In two games vs Oakland last season, Philip Rivers threw for 655 yards, four TDs and 0 INTs.
  • The Chargers are 4-17 SU in their last 21 games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Raiders are 8-21 SU in their last 29 games vs the Chargers.
  • The Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs the Chargers.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Raiders’ last three games vs the Chargers. (Avg combined score: 36.0)
  • The Raiders are 0-9 SU in their last nine games as an underdog.
  • The Raiders are 0-5 ATS in their last five games after an ATS win.
  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Raiders’ last 11 games. (Avg combined score: 44.0)
Titans at Bills
  • The Titans are 5-1 SU in their last six games vs the Bills.
  • The Titans are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs the Bills.
  • The Bills are 6-1 SU in their last seven games at home after losing their most recent home game.
  • The total has gone OVER in 14 of the Bills’ last 17 games at home. (Avg combined score: 48.65)
  • The Titans are 1-10 SU in their last 11 games on the road after winning their most recent road game.
  • The Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games.
  • The Titans are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games on the road vs teams with losing records.
Vikings at Eagles
  • The Eagles are allowing the fewest rushing yards per game at 63.8.
  • The Vikings are 2-7 SU in their last nine games vs the Eagles.
  • The Vikings are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games vs the Eagles.
  • The Vikings are 1-8 SU and ATS in their last nine games on the road vs the Eagles.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Eagles’ last seven games at home. (Avg combined score: 29.29)
  • The Eagles are 10-0 SU in their last 10 games as home favorites.
  • The Eagles are 8-0 SU and ATS in their last eight games at home in October.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Vikings’ last nine games on the road. (Avg combined score: 48.44)
  • The Vikings are 7-2 SU in their last nine games after consecutive losses.
  • The Vikings are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games.
Rams at Seahawks
  • The Rams destroyed the Seahawks 42-7 last season in Seattle. Todd Gurley scored four TDs in that game.
  • The Rams lead the league in net yards per play. Seattle ranks 30th in yards per play.
  • Jared Goff’s last nine road games: 20 TDs, two INTs.
  • The Rams rank second in points scored and fifth in points allowed
  • The total has gone UNDER in four of the Rams’ last five games vs the Seahawks. (Avg combined score: 30.8)
  • The Rams are 2-11 SU in their last 13 games on the road vs the Seahawks.
  • The Rams are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games on the road vs the Seahawks.
  • The total has gone UNDER in five of the Seahawks’ last seven games vs divisional opponents.
  • The Seahawks are 44-10 SU in their last 54 games at home.
  • The Seahawks are 5-14-1 ATS in their last 20 games in the late afternoon.
  • The total has gone OVER in seven of the Rams’ last nine games on the road. (Avg combined score: 53.44)
Cardinals at 49ers
  • The 49ers are 0-9 ATS in their last nine games as home favorites.
  • Arizona ranks 31st in net yards per play. San Francisco ranks 7th.
  • The Cardinals are allowing the second-most rushing yards per game (141.2).
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Cardinals’ last three games vs the 49ers. (Avg combined score: 35.33)
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Cardinals’ last eight games on the road. (Avg combined score: 38.0)
  • The Cardinals are 6-0 SU in their last six games vs the 49ers. (Avg winning margin: 12.33)
  • The total has gone OVER in six of the 49ers’ last seven games. (Avg combined score: 55.71)
  • The 49ers are 0-5 SU in their last five games vs their division at home.
  • The Cardinals are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games in the late afternoon.
Cowboys at Texans
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Cowboys’ last six games on the road. (Avg combined score: 29.67)
  • Dallas has scored a combined 21 points in two road games this season.
  • Dallas ranks fourth in opponent yards per play and seventh in points allowed.
  • The Cowboys are 0-4 SU and ATS in their last four games as a road underdog.
  • The Texans are 4-22-1 ATS in their last 27 games at night.
  • The Cowboys are 7-1 SU in their last eight games at night.
  • The Texans are 1-9 SU in their last 10 games.
  • The Cowboys are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games on the road in October.
  • Deshaun Watson is averaging 356.6 passing yards over his last three games.
Redskins at Saints
  • The Saints are 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games before a bye.
  • The Redskins are 3-7 SU and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games after a bye.
  • The Redskins are 12-5 SU in their last 17 games vs the Saints.
  • The Redskins are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs the Saints.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Redskins’ last five games vs the Saints. (Avg combined score: 62.8)
  • The Saints are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games at night.
  • The total has gone OVER in five of the Saints’ last seven games. (Avg combined score: 60.43)
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